Jobs Report Sucker Punches Recovery!

In this column a few weeks ago I likened the economy and markets to being in the eye of a hurricane.

There had been some destruction in global stock markets created by the debt crisis in Europe, but the storm quieted down after the surprise EU/IMF announcement of a $1 trillion debt rescue plan. There was hope the danger had passed. But I suggested that, as in the eye of a hurricane, the other side of the storm was yet to arrive, and that sometimes it arrives with more fury than the first side.

It does seem we are now experiencing the back side of the financial storm and that it may indeed result in more serious damage.

The rescue package brought hope that the European debt crisis could be confined to Greece, that the European economic recovery would continue, that European banks would avoid serious fallout from the debt crisis.

The return of a positive outlook was in no small way related to confidence that the economic recovery in the U.S. would continue and become more robust, and that China’s strong economy would also continue to support the global recovery.

The Chinese stock market did not demonstrate the same confidence. It topped out last July and has been in a bear market since, having declined 27%. And in recent weeks it became clear what the Chinese stock market saw coming. The Chinese government has begun taking dramatic steps to take some air out of the Chinese real estate bubble, and stock markets are well aware of what happens to economies when real estate bubbles burst.

Meanwhile, the Greek debt crisis was contagious and spread to Portugal and Spain, with concerns rising about Ireland and Italy.

However, there was still confidence that the U.S. economy would continue to improve, even though some important parts of last year’s stimulus efforts, particularly for the housing industry, had expired at the end of April.

But then the latest economic reports began coming in.

In recent days it was reported that Pending Home Sales rose 6% in April, but that it was likely only due to a rush by home-buyers to get purchase contracts signed before the April 31 expiration of the home-buyer rebate program.

And sure enough, a few days later the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that while overall mortgage applications had increased 0.9% in the last week of May, the increase had been due to existing home-owners applying to refinance their mortgages to take advantage of low mortgage rates. Mortgage rates from those looking to buy a home, so-called ‘purchase applications’, had declined for the fourth straight week since the home-buyer bonus plan expired at the end of April, and are 40% below their level at the end of April. That cannot bode well for the next home sales reports.

Meanwhile, MasterCard’s SpendingPulse reported that retail sales in May were 3.7% below May of last year, the second month of declines after sales improved in the first quarter.

Consumers and the stock market really needed a strong employment report to offset those negative reports, if confidence that the economy continues to improve was to be kept alive.

Unfortunately, the jobs report Friday morning was dismal. The Labor Department reported that only 431,000 new jobs were created in May versus the consensus forecast of 515,000. And most of the new jobs, 411,000, were temporary census-taker jobs. Minus those, there were only 20,000 new jobs created. An awful report.

The unemployment rate did decline to 9.7% from the previous 9.9%. But even that was questionable as a positive, since it was primarily due to 322,000 unemployed dropping out of the unemployment picture because they gave up looking for a job.

Adding to the concerns, ill-winds continued to blow in from Europe with the statement of an official in Hungary that his country now faces a debt crisis similar to that of Greece.

The back side of hurricanes do pass, and the continuation of the financial hurricane will also pass. But the stock market must now worry about the damage that it leaves behind, not so much whether it has raised the odds of the economy sliding back into a double-dip recession, but the damage it has done to forecasts of a V-shaped recovery and the robust improvements in corporate earnings that have been factored into stock prices.

Fixing Your Student Loan Problem

College tuition is expensive, we all know about it. Even many people were depending on student loan to help them pay for college. The idea of student loan is to be paid after the student graduated and secure a job position. However, with the high amount of tuition to pay, many people are dealing with huge amount of student loans and even with the current economics, paying student loan is much harder to afford. It makes many people have a big debt problem from its student loans even years after they graduated.Like it or not, college and student loans have been among the biggest problems in our society today. It has big shares on total debt problems today. Many people are struggling with that debt problem even on the edge of failing to pay the debt. You know what kind of bad things will come when you fail to pay the debts and you know you can’t let this thing to happen. It is time to find the solution to fix that problem. First of all, review your debt account. Makes sure that you are not a victim of alleged debt making your burden bigger. Don’t get wrong, many banks and loan lenders do that thing. You can seek for legal or paralegal staff support to help you review your debt account and fix any possible alleged debt.

However, the real solution you need is how to get the actual loan paid and for that you may need to restructure it to make much affordable to pay. Debt consolidation can be a good option and 321loans.org is the right place to come. It is the right place to find the best debt consolidation solution for your student loans. You will love how they really care about your best interest and more importantly, how they really fix the problem you have.

A Moderate’s View of President Obama

The vast majority of Americans are proud to have elected President Obama, our first black Chief of State. We are proud to demonstrate to the world and our own fellow citizens that race no longer matters in our society. We have put race, ethnicity, national origin, and gender behind us and (theoretically) every American can do whatever they rise to the challenge to do – without barriers. We have a much better “face” to the rest of the world that we are not the superior people of a high and mighty superpower but equals when it comes to justice and democracy throughout the world. Let’s face it — George W. Bush alienated much of the world by not seeking international support and consensus for actions he undertook.

Former President Jimmy Carter is dead wrong in his assessment that the attacks on President Obama’s political agenda are race inspired. Nothing could be further from the truth. Yes, there will always be small fringe groups on the right or left but these are out of the mainstream. Carter’s outrageous suggestion really tells how far out of reality he has wandered.

We all agree that President Obama inherited the greatest financial disaster since The Great Depression. The financial markets’ bailout started under the Bush administration, as did planning for The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. But mainstream Americans are scared to death of the trillions of dollars of debt that are being added to the national debt – ultimately impacting the quality of life of your children and grandchildren in the long-term and to each of us in the short term, as the value of the US dollar has nowhere to go but down when compared to currencies of governments operating under fiscal restraints. If John McCain had been elected, we could very well have this same sickening feeling of the country’s financial mess we are leaving for our posterity. And healthcare? Nearly everyone agrees it is out of control and consuming much too much of our money with it’s runaway costs. We don’t want Cigna making life decisions any more than the so-called death panels, which these insurance oligopolies currently do. The only argument is how are we going to pay for it and will it really improve if the government gets its sticky fingers in it?

The real issue is a strong distrust of all politicians by mainstream Americans. Republicans, Democrats, and Libertarians are all at or near the bottom of those we trust, right behind used car salesmen. Most politicians are on par with the corporate executives who at critical times in their company’s history – at key decision points – chose what made them look and feel good over the needs of the corporation and its shareholders. We see the same thing in politicians. What will get me re-elected. What pork barrel projects – whether good for the country or not – will make my constituents indebted to me to keep me in office.

Americans are angry and stressed out over the housing, financial, and jobs crisis. We do not want to see the decline of the country as the world leader, because of bad corporate and political self-serving decisions. We want our dollar to be worth something in the future and not stick our children and grandchildren with the mistakes – read massive debt – of today. Government (politicians) and corporations must work hard to regain the trust of the American people to get us back on solid economic and political ground.

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